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South Texas Hawkeyes
Thursday April 16, 2009
As spring practice nears its climax, a lot of questions remain unanswered and a bevy of positions are still up for grabs. It's quite the drought for sports at this time for me, as I'd rather not listen to the duldrums of baseball bats and cracker jacks, so I hope you, the ambiguous reader, will sympathize with me if I become a little over energetic about football, even though it is a good ways away. Iowa had a very satisfying bounce-back 9-4 season last year, crushing South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, and though a few superstar caliber players (Shonn Greene, Mitch King) depart, the core of the team is intact and I think this could be one of the more talented Iowa teams of this decade. The schedule is brutally tough on the road and I'm slightly worried about replacing stalwarts King/Kroul on the defensive interior, but with talent galore at the skill positions (including replacements for Greene), a potentially dominate offensive line if they can find a leader at the center spot, and the deepest linebacking group of the Kirk Ferentz era, I think another upper echelon Big Ten finish is in order, and with a little luck and magic maybe even a Big Ten title. I'll get to the juicy Twitterific storylines as I analyze each position, player by player, starting with quarterback Ricky Stanzi.
QB: Stanzi battled with incumbent Jake Christensen for the beginning of last season, and ended up firmly grabbing the reigns of the position despite a nasty turnover problem that plagued him for most of the season and contributed heavily to three of the Hawk's losses. Stanzi also showed flashes of brilliance, however, displaying a pocket poise not seen since Drew Tate a few years back. Stanzi, though slight in frame, can throw the full monty of passes, including a beautiful touch pass that Jake could never make, and showed a crafty mobility and knack for sidestepping pressure. Jake definitely didn't have that gene. He also seemed to mature as the season went on last year, especially after that legendary comeback drive to beat Penn State. Things to improve on in the spring include his carelessness with the ball and putting on more strength, but I'd rather have a QB taking risks and scoring points with a few more INTs on the side than a conservative stiff like Christensen standing still in the pocket and throwing 3rd and 5 passes straight into the dirt. Backup depth is a problem at QB since Jake's understandable transfer, but two young, talented redshirt freshmen wait in the wings. James Vandenberg, a record-setting righty from Keokuk, Iowa, has been wowing in practice and appears to possess the tools to handle the most pressure packed spot on the field when Stanzi leaves. He played at a small school, but he has the arm and the numbers. John Wienke, another small school stud and former Michigan commit, is the other young gun. Apparently he's got a powerful arm and great attitude, equally capable of taking the QB spot with James. This could be quite the interesting QB battle in two years, and someone is going to be very disappointed. I'm salivating to see how that one turns out, and how the loser reacts. Both guys are unproven, but the coaches are raving about each player and I think they have plenty of potential to be studs.
RB: Outsiders are probably pensieve about how the hell Iowa is supposed to replace Greene, the best back in Hawkeye football history, who declared a year early for the NFL. But the Hawks have loads of talent waiting in the wings, most notably surprise Indianapolis stud Jewel Hampton, who came out of nowhere last season as Shonn's backup to have the most productive freshman rushing campaign in Hawk history, so a lot of re-writing to be done in the record books. Jewel rushed for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns, displaying a fiery burst and hard-nosed style that, physically, make him one of the more talented looking backs of the Ferentz era. He needs to remain hungry and continue to run hard even with the majority of the carries this season instead of single-digit rushes, and realize that Big Ten teams will be looking for him now, not sleeping on him. Greene's consistency and raw reliability will be near-impossible to replace, but if Jewel runs like he did last season, then Hawkeye-skeptics are in for a treat. Redshirt frosh Jeff Brinson, an SEC recruit who put up video game numbers against big time comp. in Florida, is an exciting prospect at the halfback position as well. He is big and runs with the speed and power of Greene, but he still needs to work on his conditioning. I haven't seen enough of him to make a judgement, but if he lives up to the high school hype than he should share a wealth of carries with Jewel. Plus, Kirk rarely likes to depend solely on one back. Other vets who are more known for inspired, smashing special teams play also factor in as depth and reliable, emergency options. Beloved Paki O'Meara, number 1 on the depth chart last spring, plays as hard as anyone and showed that he has some speed and good receiving skills out of the backfield in early action last year. Jayme Murphy, a concussion inducing battering ram on kickoffs, is also a hardworker who factors in as the "Sam Brownlee" option, with a little more speed. A freshman to look out for is Brandon Wegher, a lightning bolt of a speedster from Sioux City with as many entertaining highlights as a young Timmy Dwight in his prime. Wegher could easily return kicks/punts for Iowa next year, and frankly I can't wait to watch him dash and dart his way around Big Ten defenders for some frenetic touchdowns. He was a highly recruited guy, and we were lucky to nab him. Someone else coming in as a freshman who might make some sort of minor impact, even with depth, is Ohio bruiser Brad Rogers. Rogers is built like a more stout Greene and would probably be better served at fullback, but the guy is a big hombre and punishing runner who suffered through a bevy of injuries in high school, never truly showing off his potential. At fullback, both guys who saw extensive time last season, Bret Morse and walk-on Wade Leppert, are back. Fullbacks are never going to be crucial parts of the offense for Iowa or really anyone else, but these guys both fulfill their duties of blocking and occasionally catching a 3-yard dinker out of the backfield. We'll just forget about Leppert's miscue on Shonn's failed 4th down run against Michigan State, becuase their bodies of work as a whole were both excellent. These guys do everything they are supposed to.
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Friday April 10, 2009
Iowa Basketball has officially hit the panic button, at least in the eyes of the rabid, fickle Hawkeye faithful. There have been no reports of Todd Lickliter reading to little tykes at the local children's hospital as news of 4 players' transfers reached him, and no rushed, misguided attack on some distant enemy only partially responsible for our suffering, but Lickliter is still stuck in one of the most pressure packed situations since George Bush had to react after the 9/11 attacks...okay, maybe not that much, but the whole damn cornfed state of Iowa has their bloated blue eyes focused on him, and if he can rebuild this basketball program or not after 3 straight years in the crapper. Now, with two major players and two bench players gone from the team, it appears as if the Hawks are back to square one in the rebuilding phase, something the already fed-up, apathetic fans don't want to hear. With attendance at a painfully empty all-time low and statewide interest nowhere near it was in the Lute Olson/George Raveling/Tom Davis hey-day, fans are getting so frustrated they are even lamenting taking the much vilified Steve Alford and his slicked head of egocentricism for granted. Is this fair for poor old Lickliter, or are his impersonal tactics and strict adherence to the vaunted system the reasons why we haven't been able to win yet and the players don't want to stay? The first thing I want to say is impossible to express without a bevy of cliches...Rome, or Duke/North Carolina for that matter, wasn't built in a day. Quite frankly, Lickliter needs time to garner the type of players he wants, for the school to finish building the renovations (practice facilities, making Carver more accessible and modern) that they are just starting, and for his players to stay on board! He had amazing success at Butler, a mid-major school in a weak conference several notches below the Big Ten, so there are still question marks with recruiting and the like even though he had such success, especially against powerhouse teams in the tournament. I'm not a big fan of his whiny bench body language or plethora of references to "The Butler Way" or the "system," but I believe a lot of that is just him trying to re-affirm to himself and to the Hawkeye fans that he CAN win with this style of play, emphasizing the three point shot, disciplined passing in the half-court, and stingy defense, especially coming from the guards.
The big loss the Iowa Hawkeyes have faced in the past couple of weeks is Jake Kelly. Not only did he have the venerable distinction of being my favorite player on the squad and the most entertaining to watch by far, he simply our most skilled offensive guy and the only player on the team with a slick batch of one on one scoring moves, effective against any team with his long arms, slithery body, and smooth touch. After Jeff Peterson hurt his hamstring against Wisconsin, Jake came in at the point guard position and came into his own, looking amazing and supremely confident with the ball in his hands at all times. Jake drove, dished, and swished three after three, keeping Iowa in every game they played towards the end of the season and leading the Hawks to exciting upset wins against Michigan and Penn State. He averaged more than 20 points a game and racked up the assists, and was forced to guard the opposing team's best player every night. I will definitely remember Jake for shutting down Manny Harris in our win over UM. Kelly is transferring back home to Indiana State, as he has been confronted with brutal tragedy since his mother died in a freak accident plane crash over the summer. This is a horror few guys will ever face; no one should lose a parent at 19. Jake has my full support and I hope being back home will re-energize his spirits and ease his troubled mind. I know the boys in Terre Haute got themselves a new basketball fan for next year, and it has nothing to do with Larry Bird. Peterson is also transferring, probably to Missouri Valley cellar-dweller Missouri State, located in Jeff's hometown. Jeff had the point guard spot locked up until his injury, and though he is more a natural scorer and still had occasional turnover lapses, he showed signs of major improvement in his overall offensive game and decision making. Jeff couldn't have been dissatisfied with his role, as Jake's departure meant the point guard spot was all his again, but I think his relationship with Lickliter was severed Jeff's freshman year when he was benched the entire 2nd half of the season. His confidence seemed destroyed and hurt, and I think he struggled to find respect for Todd after this. Seems like he never got over it. The other two transfers are David Palmer, a tantalizing big man who showed flashes of star potential but never developed the consistent game to fit Lickliter's wishes, and wee little Jermain Davis, an energetic defensive guard who played with wanton abandon but who lacked the skill or size to probably be a Division 1 player. Davis and Palmer were unlikely to see much time off the pine anyway, but losing Kelly and Peterson not only leaves us without our best player but our only two point guards. Iowa also loses scrubmeister JR Angle to graduation, and Cyrus Tate, Iowa's most physical and cosnsistent post man, will retire his banging body from the black and gold for eternity.
As far as recruiting for next year, we should see a small bounty of riches if Lickliter can succeed in wooing some players to Iowa City, seeing that 4 scholarships are now available. Word on the internet street is that the reason some of the players grew discontented was because ole Lick told a few of the bench scrubs that they should leave so he could put their scholarships up for better use. Pretty harsh folks, and a pretty good reason to be upset if those are your teammates that he is talking to. Of course, it is all speculation and I'll just put on my naive blinders and choose to believe they all left for personal reasons. Still, that's three years in a row that our best player has departed. Just saying. The only two recruits who signed their letter of intents so far are Sioux City Heelan big man Brennan Cougill and Dubuque's Eric May, both statewide stars who have led their repspective squads to state titles and are some of the brightest stars in all of Iowa. Devon Archie, a frenetic athlete from a JUCO in Indiana, has verbally committed and will sign during the spring signing period later in April. The same appears true for Cully Payne, a true point who de-committed from Alabame after Anthony Grant became the new coach. He fills a vital need for the Hawks, who don't have a true point without him. Iowa is also trying to get at least two JUCO plyers, Malcom Armstead and Torye Pelham. Armstead is another point guard, a spot we cannot have too much of, while Pelham is an athletic big man who can score and bang around the rim. Our lack of size and athletes around the paint area is about as sore a need as the point guard position, but we'll see if we can land any of these guys. Marcus Jordan, 23's son, was also offered a scholarship, but citing the fact that he didn't want to play against his brother at Illinois (yeah right, like his brother will actually be playing anything but garbage time the next few years) and the fact that they recruited him first, Jordan selected Central Florida, which is understandable considering he probably wants to escape the gargantuan shadow of his father and make a name for himself. As far as the guys we are getting, Cougill is expected to fill a large role for us, both figuratively and literally. He is a large golden bear of an Iowan, with good scoring skills around the basket as well as a wide body for rebounding, good size at 6 foot 10, and sharp passing. He is not going to be a wunderkind right away, or maybe ever in his career, but is not meant to disparage him. He will provide such valuable size down low, where the Hawks are thirsting for anyone over 6 foot 7, and bring a stabilizing rebounding force who knows what it's like to win big ball games. May probably doesn't have the size or strength to be a 1st-year Big Ten wonder, but he is a great scorer at the high school level, even better than Matt Gatens, and a very solid athlete and hardworking teammate. I expect him to be a solid bench contributor providing depth for the rest of his career. I don't know much about Archie, but I've heard he's a raw athlete who attacks the rim and the boards with reckless abandon. Sounds kind of like a Kurt Looby type, but I'm not going to be pretend like I was overly thrilled that the only video I could find of him on the internet was getting dunked on by now former Hawkeye Jake Kelly. Stevie Wonder can see that Iowa needs more athleticism, however, and I think it's a good pickup. Payne is supposedly a really smooth, unselfish passer who is also a dead eye shooter. He lacks blow-by speed or athletcism, but he seems to posses all the skills that a Lickliter point guard should have, so frankly I'm excited about the guy. God knows we need a point guard more than anything else, at any cost. Goofy white guys were a staple of the Butler Way, why can't Iowa continue the tradition?? I'll take it.
And for the players we have returning, they are few and far between, led by Jesus Christ himself, Matt Gatens. Gatens was dubbed the savior of Iowa basketball before he even made it to his senior year of high school, an all-around American stud who hustles, makes shots, plays unselfishly, and just seems like an overall divine figure. He has Big Ten strength and fearlessness already, which I love to see, and assumed a leadership role on this youthful squad. He doesn't have gamebreaking athletic ability or great one-on-one skills, but the guy is a total player and should be one of the better Iowa-bred Hawkeyes ever when his career is over. You can bet the pressure will be scintillating next season. Anthony Tucker, fresh off a series of alcohol problems, illness, and academic ineligibility, should actually be ready this season. If you don't feel for the guy, you don't have a heart. He had maybe the toughest freshman year a kid could have, and through it all he has been a dedicated Hawkeye affirming time and time again that he is staying and intends to turn things around. Before his problems, he was one of the brightest stars on the entire team. His shot is one of the most beautiful things I've ever seen, and he just knows the game on the offensive end. He's not merely a spot-up shooter, as he can drive and crash the boards too. Can't wait to have him back and watch the Tucker redemption show. I'm really excited for Jarryd Cole, who will be a junior next season. That's shocking to me. He's also the only guy remaining from that 1st Lickliter class, or the guys that were basically Alford recruits. Cole is undersized for what he's asked to do, but he plays with amazing energy and passion, fighting for every rebound and banging with bigger opponents on defense. Cole is very athletic and finishes with ease around the rim, but still needs polishing on his jittery post moves and practice on his outside jumper, of which there is none in his game. This is a guy who works harder than anyone, however, as he showed us with his rehab and his improved free throws, so I believe in the guy. Devan Bawinkel is a great role player who is asked to do nothing but shoot three pointers, which he excells at. He can be streaky, like anyone who relies strictly on the outside shot, and he will probably be asked to play way too many minutes, but leave the man open and thou shalt pay. Aaron Fuller is an important returning cog as well. Fuller has great talent and versatility, oozing with the potential to be a star playing different positions. He has long arms, attacks the glass, is smooth going to the basket, and can hit set three pointers. He also made the best hustle play all season, an outstanding block on a fastbreak that sparked our overtime win against Wisconsin. He makes a lot of boneheaded, unforced errors and looked like a lost freshman out there, but those are things that will heal with time. I think Fuller will be very good next year. Andrew Brommer returns after a rather ugly freshman year...he was considered the weak link of last year's class, but definitely proved that he wasn't quite ready for D1 ball. With the lack of depth, a redshirt wasn't possible though. He has good size and plays with more energy and quickness than Seth Gorney ever could, but the poor guy can barely make a layup in traffic and shot an embarassing free throw percentage. Hopefully he gets better, becaues I'm not convinced yet. Lickliter's young dumpling of a son is also a walk-on point guard for the Hawks, and though he looks like a 12-year old water boy I'm sure he's a good guy and a contributing practice player who the other players get along with. Or not, seeing as all the message board freaks seem to contend that Lickliter is on par with Satan in the eyes of the ballers.
In closing, I realize that in this modern age of college basketball, it is tough to win at Iowa. We had winning tradition and a sterling program for 2 or 3 decades, always good for the 2nd round with maybe a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 run thrown in (Final Four for Lute Olson!!), but with the contagious optimism of the Steve Alford era, when we though we were getting to that "next level", we instead received an arrogant greaseheaded prick who was only looking out for himself and his own future success. He had some pretty good teams, especially the beloved '06 team that had the infamous 1st round loss, but interest in the program died and fans felt a seperation from Iowa basketball for the 1st time since before Lute. Alford just wasn't an Iowa guy, and his salivation over the Indiana job when it opened up made it all the more apparent. Now the poor fool is stuck in New Mexico making NITs every year, and our program was left to rot with lack of fan support, no good recruiting connections or players left, crappy facilities way behind the times, and a program in shambles with a dated tradition that young fans can't even remember. Iowa is a tough place to recruit in the 1st place with the weather, cornfields, and steady supply of obese white people, but it's a fabulous college town if you can get past the stereotypes and the surrounding terrain of green grass and corn stalks. Lickliter is a man firmly dedicated to winning basketball games his way and developing a special system or tradition of doing things, and I like the idea of that unique, well-defined style being our mantra for years to come, but it takes serious time and recruiting flair to develop that, and Lickliter hasn't proven that he can do that in the Big Ten yet. I'm rooting for him, because I would sure love to have an established basketball progam, since at that point players won't give a crap about the boring state and will only want to play for a Big Ten winner. A lot is left to prove for Lickliter, and while things are fairly bleak I'll be rooting for him all the way.
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Monday April 6, 2009
The general opinion of the common masses for tonight's national championship game is that the divinely gifted North Carolina Tarheels will finally end the inspired, redemptive effort being put on by MSU. Michigan State has played some great defense and they have a stable of great depth, along with some timely tournament shooting, which is something they missed during the regular season. Some might also proclaim that they are a team of destiny, playing on possesed by the omnipresent "Spirit of Detroit" as auto workers everywhere gather at Ford Field to belt their lungs out for the green and white. As clearly as I can imagine ESPN running an endless barrage of Deeetroit comeback specials, I just can't see the Spartans taking down the Heels, a team stocked with potential All-Americans at every position. Both of these teams have beef with the fates, as Carolina wants to win for hardworking seniors Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green, while MSU has the whole redemptive factor of America's blue-collar capital going for it. But what it all comes down to is who is the better team, and while MSU has pulled off some shocking upsets and fantastic efforts to get here, I'm jumping on mainstream America's bandwagon and taking UNC. They are the team that everyone has had number 1 all season long, returning everybody from a Final Four team last year and led by a healthy, explosive Ty Lawson, they have steamrolled the competition all tournament long. I didn't have UNC even getting to the Final Four, banking on Lawson's troublesome toe to keep him from being fully effective, but the injury either faded into the sunset or was an elaborate trick by Roy Williams to fool bracket predictors everywhere. Michigan State is the quickest and most athletic team in the Big Ten by far, but they are just another squad for the NBA-ready Heels to challenge. Kalin Lucas should be able to hang with Lawson, but if he's hitting that three pointer than Sparty is screwed. An x-factor will be the continued high play of scorers DaJuan Summers and Raymar Morgan, who appears to be hitting his stride after a season consumed with illnesses. Also, Goran Suton needs to pull Hansbrough out from the basket and hit some jump shots, while providing equal banging on the defensive side of the ball. UNC has all sorts of depth on the inside, something that MSU hasn't consistently gotten all season, so they will need young Marquise Gray to step up inside to combat bench x-factor Ed Davis for the Heels. Danny Green, a versatile scorer and team leader, has been playing well lately and will need to continue to beat MSU. You also can't count out the revenge factor, as Carolina absolutely throttled MSU back in December at Ford Field. This is a different Sparty team, and they will be ready to prove the Big Ten doubters wrong with a dubya, but can they? It is going to take a near miracle perdformance. Though the crowd will be raucous in favor of the East Lansing crew, Carolina is a team too stacked at every spot to be denied, even to a team of destiny.
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Monday March 23, 2009
The South is the most talent-saturated region out of all four, and I could see 4 different teams emerging into the Final Four. Any basketball deviant like myself should be salivating at these potential matchups. The number 1 seed North Carolina Tarheels, running rampant with rumors and worries over the health of Ty Lawson's popular big toe, take on 16 seed Radford. UNC is a different team with the blurry speed of Lawson leading the break. He is an incredibly fast point who gets the ball upcourt in 2 or 3 seconds, where he can finish with the best of them or dish to one of his thoroughbred teammates. He is also a very good perimeter shooter. If he isn't playing, the serviceable Bobby Frasor can handle the point, and while he is a good enough to start on almost any team in the nation he doesn't have that next level speed/athleticism that Lawson brings to the table. Either way, Tar Heel nation won't need him against Radford, as they have a unfairly large pool of All-American talent to choose from anyway. 20th-year senior Tyler Hansbrough, set to break JJ Reddick's ACC-scoring record, is the hardworking post scorer down low, followed up by a faceless cast of great players ranging from sharpshooter Wayne Ellington to senior scorer Danny Green to smooth post man Dion Thompson. This is a stacked team that should be in the Final 4, but without Lawson it won't happen. The SEC was wayy down this season, but LSU is a good, athletic team with some guys who can still play form that old Final Four team (Marcus Thornton, Tazmin Mitchell)taking on the always savvy Butler Bulldogs. Butler wasn't supposed to be very good this year, losing so many good seniors from last season's team, but they won the Horizon League thanks to skilled low-post hustler Matt Howard and contributions from unlikely sources like freshman sharpshooter Gordon Heyward. Butler is always good for a victory or two against a seemingly more talented major conference team in the tournament, and I think it will come against the regular season champs from the crappiest major conference out there this year. The consensus pick in the media world is Western Kentucky over Illinois, and while I agree that WKU is maybe the best mid-major team in this tournament with some serious upset potential, and Illinois is without steady point guard Chester Frazier, I still think Illinois is a solid enough team to win here, plus I want to go against the grain a bit. They have a bevy of really improved players, like silky smooth Mike Davis and pick and pop big man James Tisdale, while they still have good guards without Frazier in guys like smooth passing Demetri McCamey and athletic slasher Calvin Brock. WKU will rally with playamking point Orlando Mendez-Valdez, but Illinois will pull it out. Gonzaga should destroy Akron. I'm not sure if I like them for a deep tourney run, because they have a few lazy players who go through focus lapses, but they have as much talent as any team in the nation. Jeremy Pargo is one of the most athletic, attacking guards in the country, while Matt Bouldin is an underrated little hustler who can do a lot of good things on the court. Austin Daye is the most talented guy here, a smooth 6 foot 10 scorer who can take it to the basket and pop the outside jumper, but he goes through too many lapses of effort. Josh Heytvelt has great size and touch, but he also loses focus at times throughout the game, sadly expected from a chronic shroom smoker. If all these players, plus a batch of other talented guys, can step it up, than the Zags can really make some noise. Arizona State should beat up on Temple, a solid but unspectacular A-10 team, unless Dionte Christmas goes off amid all sorts of punny jokes from the CBS announcers. ASU looked like a Final 4 team at times, but we must remember that they come from the Pac-10, and they also played poorly down the stretch, but with guys like James Harden and Pendergraph, who could both play at the next level, that is just too much for the Owls to handle. Syracuse is my darkhorse team to reach the championship. I've watched them on numerous occasions and love their talent and style of play, even though their turnover-happy ways and occasional lapses in focus/judgement are a little disturbing. I think they came together to end the season and finally became the team they can be, winning that legendary 6-OT game against UConn in the Big East tourney and looking like one of those elite teams that could break that Final 4 plateau. Johnny Flynn is one of the most exciting point guards to watch in college basketball, a playmaking force with a sick handle, highlight-worthy passes, and a nasty 1st step that lets him get to the rim at will. White boy extraordinaire Eric Devendorf is a talented guard who can really shoot, as can range camp graduate Andy Rautins. Paul Harris is also a big x-factor on their tourney run, as he can bang and board with the best of them but has an inconsistent offensive game that needs to flame for the 'Cuse to go far. Not only are they stacked on the perimeter, but they are solid inside with two big, active post guys in Rick Jackson and man-child Arinze Onuaku. They will take care of business easily against cold-shooting Southland champ Stephen F. Austin. Michigan will surprise Big Ten haters everywhere beating shaky Clemson, a team with plenty of athletes and a deadly full-court press, but a team with a poor tourney resume and no consistency on offense. Michigan has plenty of talent in guys like one-on-one superstar Manny Harris and active post guy DeShawn Simms, along with some big upset wins early in the season proving they can hang with some of the conference heavyweights out there. I think they are a better coached team, and a more disciplined team, so look for the Wolverines to win. Finally, Blake Griffin and the Oklahoma Sooners will thunder their way past Morgan State and their Baltimore-bred ballers. Griffin is a scary good force with an imposing blend of size and leaping ability I haven't seen since Lebron James jumped to the NBA. His brother Taylor is also an excellent, physical player who benefits from the defensive attention laden on Blake, while freshman guard Willie Warren may be the best newcomer in college basketball this season. He can light it up from deep and score with the best in the Big 12. The only problem I see with the Sooners is that they rely on Griffin for so much of what they do, and they don't play very many players outside their starting 5. If foul trouble creeps on and the Griffin brothers are out of the picture, this team will have some trouble getting the shots they are accustomed to or generating offense.
Every year I run out of time here on these pics, and have to start breezing through them. UNC over Butler, Butler is a good team but eventually they are going to run into someone who just has way more talent than they do, and UNC is that team. They are fast, deep, and will come at the Bulldogs in waves. I don't think this one will even be close. Gonzaga is a better team than Illinois in all areas, and this is a game that they will need Chester Frazier in more so than the WKU one. I just see matchup problems all over the floor for the Illini. Syracuse's athletic guards are too much for Arizona State to handle, and if their punishing inside bodies can get Pendergraph into foul trouble than this one is way over. Finally, Michigan doesn't have the horses to contain Blake Griffin. Oklahoma should win big in this physical showdown. If Lawson is healthy, UNC will beat Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, but if not Zags have a shot. I have Syracuse over Oklahoma, just because I think the Sooners will get worn out keeping up with the Orange's pace and their guards will be difficult to contain. Syracuse-UNC is a big talentfest of a showdown, and I'm banking on Lawson not being 100 hundred percent so Johnny Flynn will dominate the point guard matchup, leading Syracuse to the victory.
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Pittsburgh, who looked like the best overall and most consistent team in the nation all season, nabbed the number 1 seed here in the East and will play East Tennessee State, a scrappy 16 seed. Pitt is not a flashy team dotted with NBA superstars like a North Carolina, but few teams in the nation can match their all-around physicality and their brutish beast of a big man, DeJuan Blair. Blair is unguardable, but is prone to foul trouble. If he gets early fouls, Pitt is in trouble because they lack another inside scoring force. Levance Fields is the swagtastical point guard, a full back of a 1 who is a great passer and big balls shooter. Their best perimeter player and scorer is Sam Young, who looks like he's 50 but plays with the explosive athleticism and sugary sweet shooting touch of an NBA swingman. Pitt has never been past the Sweet 16 under Jaimie Dixon and seems to wilt under expectations season after season, but this year's team feels different. I think they are Final Four worthy if they can keep Blair on the court. Oklahoma State-Tennessee is a fantastic 1st round matchup, and I see the Cowboys winning. UT has Final 4 level athletic talent, but they play at such a blinding pace the turnovers usually pile up in bunches, reflecting the inconsistent focus of the Volunteers. They are also poor perimeter shooters, missing Chris Lofton, and rely heavily on All-World Tyler Smith to carry the team in every statistical category. Wayne Chism is the x-factor, as he's a big man with a quick step and outside touch. He could go from 24 points one game to 4 points the next. Okie State has played very well to end the season, carried by bulky point guard Byron Eaton and underrated scoring machine James Anderson. Look for fiesty big man Marshall Moses to bang some heads down low as well. OK State is just the better team at this point in time, and with Eaton as the leader they play a much more controlled, physical style that is a winning brand in the tourament more so that the run and gun system that UT employs. Florida State has too much athletic talent for the whitebread cheeseheads from Wisconsin, who use their size advantage and physical style of play to pulverize opponents into submission. If streaky sharpshooter Jason Bohannon gets hot or Trevon Hughes gets the scoring mojo going again, UW could stand a chance, but Tony Douglas and FSU have been one of the ACC's brightest all season and the talent disparity is too much for me. One of my upset specials is Portland State over Xavier. I don't know much about PSU, other than they beat Gonzaga at home when the Zags were floundering early in the season, but I was unimpressed with Xavier all season long and think they are getting by on name value in a conference where Dayton and Temple often looked better. Look for them to continue their free-falling ways against an upset minded bunch. Another upset is VCU over UCLA, the Pac-10 darlings who appear to have lost their 3-straight Final 4 mojo. VCU upset Duke in the 1st round two years ago thanks to a buzzer beater by do-it-all point Eric Maynor, and he's still around doing damage. I think this one will be a repeat, as VCU has a better all-around team now with shot-blocking athletic force Larry Sanders inside than they did when they beat the Blue Devils. UCLA played poorly in an average league this season, and they don't have the star scoring punch they've had the past few years thanks to a bevy of NBA defections. Track star point Darren Collison is still around, as is slasher Josh Shipp, but not enough is left on the plate for a deep run this year and I just haven't seen them play well enough to beat an upset-seasoned VCA squad. Villanova over American is a no-brainer. Nova has had one of the Big East's best teams for a while now, along with one of the best dressed coaches in Jay Wright. They have excellent guard play, lead by big game Scotty Reynolds, and a ton of balanced contributors. They play smart, team basketball and are way too athletic for the boys from the Patriot League. Texas versus Minnesota is a good matchup in the 7-10. Texas has as much talent as anyone, but their struggles to find a point guard and play with any consistency hurt them all season. AJ Abrams is a gamechanging long rang sniper, but his attitude that he has to take every shot hurts the team at times. They have other great players, like versatile swingman Damion James, big man Dexter Pittman, and crafty up and comer Dogus Balbay, but all of them have looked like no-shows as many times as they've looked like stars. The Golden Gophers have one of the more athletic teams out of the Big Ten, playing at a quick pace, but Texas can easily match that athleticism player to player and the Gophers have zero tournament experience. Look for Texas to pull out the win. Finally, Duke will beat 15 seeded Binghampton, even though they almost lost as a 2-seed last year. This is a much better Duke team, and they are peaking at the right time. The Blue Devils have a future NBA swingman in Gerald Henderson, an excellent athlete with the ability to get to the basket at will, and he pushes them over the top from the stable of talented white guys who can shoot, which is what they were before. Benching Greg Paulus and bringing in the more athletic Nolan Smith has also made a huge difference in the team's defense and ability to score in transition. Jon Scheyer is an excellent shooter, and Kyle Singler is immensely skilled and able to score in a variety of ways. Duke, fresh off an ACC tournament title, is finally looking like vintage Duke.
Pittsburgh will control the tempo and use their inside dominance to finish off Ok State, Florida State will use their athletic advantage to polish off Portland State, and Villanova has too many good guards for VCU to handle. Texas-Duke is the best second round matchup here, as UT has the talent to give Duke everything they can handle, but the Blue Devils are playing much more consistently to end the season, and I see Duke winning. Pitt will once again rely on the inside game to punish Florida State down low, but look for the raw and athletic Solomon Alabai to be an x-factor for FSU if they are to contain Blair or get him in foul trouble. Duke-Villanova is an intriguing game, as both squads are guard-oriented and lack a dominate inside advantage, but Nova's guards are experienced, balanced, and more athletic than Duke's. Plus, I'm one of major Dukie haters out there, I could go on and on talking about their holier than thou attitude and sense of entitlement, and I'd rather see the boys from Phillie take this one. It's becoming a common theme, but it really is the one thing that sets them apart from other schools-Pitt and their inside presence, DeJuan Blair. I look for their physical advantage to take them over Villanova and land them in the Final Four. I'm a little wary about it, just because Pitt always lets me down in the tournament, but Pitt is a better team than Nova and I'm sticking to the hope that Blair will stay out of foul trouble.
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